Something freaky is going on with the gambling gods. And it has to do with me consistently and constantly breaking even with my bets. This is how my gambling has gone through the first six weeks of the season:
Week 1: 3 – 0
Week 2: 3 – 0
Week 3: 1-1-1
Week 4: 1-1-1
Week 5: 1-1-1
Week 6: 1-1
Do you see what's happened my last four weeks? Exactly nothing has happened. I have broken even every week since week three. And the worst part is, it's not technically breaking even. My bookie charges $2 juice per every $50 that I bet (with a max of $10 juice). And unlike some bookies, who only charge the juice when you lose (though their juice is typically a lot more than $2 because of this), my bookie charges on every bet. So basically, I have paid $22 over the last four weeks so that I could witness nothing happen.
When I complained about this to my friend, Tony, he said, “Lighten up, Mr. Nate. At least you ain't losing.”
When I brought up the juice I'd been paying, Tony replied, “That's a small price to pay to make the games more interesting.”
Then we spent fifteen minutes debating the finer points of whether or not $2 could actually make an Oakland, Green Bay or Arizona game interesting. We concluded that it could not.
Last week, I decided that I would shake things up by mixing a bet on the Saints at home (kind of an underdog pick) with a bet against the Arizona Cardinals, the last sure thing in the NFL. And naturally, the Cardinals didn't cover. (And they lost. Because they're the Cardinals and losing is how they roll.) And I broke even again.
So now, here I am: after a 6-7 week six, I am .500 for my season of game picking. I have been .500 for my last four weeks of wagering, and I'm feeling rather vanilla about the whole damn season right now. But I guess that's better than feeling down about the whole season.
Right?
At any postal rate, this weeks picks have a special guest. The stoner chick who works next to my office got bored and stopped by and discussed my picks with me. It turns out, she's a football fan. And she's hot. And she's eighteen. Just to recap: there's a hot, drug-using, eighteen year old female football fan within twenty steps of my office. This will end badly.
On to the picks. Home teams in CAPS.
Chargers (-5) over CHIEFS
Ladies and gentlemen, the exact words of Stoner Chick as regards my first pick:
“Like, everyone's always talking about Arrowhead Stadium. And that's cool, 'cause you know, that's a good crowd and everything but like, I don't know? San Diego? It's like, they're a really good team but their coach is so tight-assed that I just don't know. But you know? Arrowhead Stadium and all that. You like, you just can't forget about it.”
It's nice to have her aboard, huh?
Jaguars (-91/2) over TEXANS
David Carr has the fifth highest QB rating in the NFL. For whatever reason, this topic has replaced “whatever stupid shit Terrell Owens said or did” as the number one football-related conversational nugget at my local sports bar. Thanks, Carr.
“Dude,” said Stoner Chick. “You can't count out the Texans because everyone is counting them out. I know that doesn't sound like it makes sense, but it does.”
That was deep, huh?
Patriots (-5) over BILLS
Likely conversation between JP Losman and Tom Brady before this game:
Brady: Dude, good luck on Sunday.
Losman: Fuck you.
Brady: No, seriously man. Good luck.
Losman: No, seriously man. Fuck you.
“Tom Brady is sooooo hot,” said Stoner Chick. “I would get plastic surgery for him if he said he'd marry me. And I think plastic surgery is wrong.”
FALCONS (-21/2) over Steelers
Let's just go straight to Stoner Chick on this one:
“Dude, that is a stupid pick. That spread offense that the Falcons run isn't new anymore. Defenses have made the adjustments. Plus, the Steelers are playing back to form. I mean, I don't want to tell you what to do Nate, but I think you're missing a pretty obvious one.”
For the record, Stoner Chick doesn't ever wear eye-liner because she couldn't figure out how to get the stuff on her face without fucking it all up and making herself look like, and I'm quoting here, “a stupid goth whore.” I just want that noted in case she turns out to be right about this pick.
Packers (+5) over DOLPHINS
Could you imagine more dysfunction, misery, shattered expectations and bitterness on one football field? I mean, these two teams were so hyped before the season, you'd have thought they were a new show on FOX.
“You know,” offered Stoner Chick. “Brett Favre is like one of those guys in school who's like real hot and popular and dates all the little popular little, preppy sluts but deep down, you know he's really cool and he's only fucking vapid bitches because it's what people expect from a football player.”
Umm? sure.
BUCS (+5) over Eagles
Stoner Chick and I are both Bucs fans. And since neither one of us can think rationally about this pick, I'm gonna use this opportunity to address really rich people:
Hey, really rich people, quit flying planes. I know you're bored and you can afford pretty much whatever you want, but you're not fucking pilots. So just stop. Seriously, you can die doing that shit.
No need to thank me. I'm here to help.
JETS (-31/2) over Lions
This game seriously doesn't interest me in the slightest. I couldn't even get up the energy to research this pick. I mean, I honestly don't care, here. Hey, at least I'm honest.
“You know,” said Stoner Chick. “I could probably make a lot more money if I became a stripper like my sister.”
Yup. This is gonna end badly.
BENGALS (-3) over Panthers
This pick spooks me out. I mean, doesn't the spread seem a little too low here? It's almost like Vegas knows the game is rigged and then set a low spread to entice people to pick the Bengals. It just seems weird.
(Side note: I love it when people tell me that there's no way that NFL games get rigged. They're basically saying, “A whole bunch of millionaire criminals would never rig an NFL game just to make a few bucks.” Morons.)
“I don't know about this game,” said Stoner Chick, before unwrapping a Snickers Bar and damn near swallowing it whole (which scored a 4.2 on my Turned-On-O-Meter). “But I love the Bengals uniforms.”
I mean, where else can you get insight like this?
Broncos (-41/2) over BROWNS
I'm not saying that I'm betting on this one, but if I were betting on the games this week, I just might bring myself to put some money on this. I mean, the Broncos just might be a pretty decent team this week. Just a guess and all that.
“I feel bad for Jake Plummer,” said Stoner Chick. “It's like, he always has all these really good streaks where he gets just a little taste of what it's like to be a superstar. And then it all goes to shit.”
I'm telling you, insight galore over here.
COLTS (-91/2) over Redskins
Hey, the Colts haven't beaten anybody mercilessly for almost three weeks. They're due. And now, the highlight of Week 7, Stoner Chick weighs in with her thoughts on Peyton Manning:
“He's ugly and dorky. I would never do him. Maybe his brother, but not him.”
For the record, I am of the humble opinion that she would fuck Peyton Manning if given the chance. Just figured I'd throw that out there.
SEAHAWKS (-61/2) over Vikings
Again, we're handing the metaphorical microphone straight to Stoner Chick:
“I don't understand why women would want to be Cheerleaders. They don't make all that much money, it's a lot of work, they always have to look good and they're just, you know, stereotyping? being a stereotype? You know, that thing where you make someone do something? Quit laughing, dick. They're perpetuating. That's it. They're perpetuating a stereotype.”
Cardinals (-3) over RAIDERS
Ladies and Gentlemen, it's the Inept Loser Bowl. Last week, Arizona and Oakland both covered spreads, which means two things 1) Vegas has finally figured out how bad these teams are and 2) I lost my first bet against the Arizona Cardinals. Quite frankly, I never thought we'd see this week. Oh yeah, and as a former St. Louis resident, I have some advice for anyone who wants to root for a team owned by Bill Bidwell: Don't.
That's good advice right there.
“I like watching the games in Oakland because they always show all the crazy fans dressed in like, metal and leather,” said Stoner Chick. “There's something really hot about black leather and silver.”
It's like they produce these chicks on an assembly line. I swear to God.
Giants (+3) over COWBOYS
I am making this pick for one reason: Dallas has Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. And while we're here, I just want to thank ESPN for finding a way to feature Jay Z, Danica Patrick and Jeff Gordon in a football half time show. I haven't seen anything more out of place since the last time I was on a dance floor. I mean, that was surreal.
And our final words from Stoner Chick, who I'll probably end up marrying if given the chance (I'm an idiot):
“I don't understand these chicks that don't know how to give head. I mean, it's not that damn hard and it's way easier than cooking and cleaning every day.”
I think I'm in love.
Last Week: 6-7
Overall Record: 41-41-5
Labels: NFL_picks