Last week, I didn’t do my football picks. The week before that I was 5 – 11. Hey, I’m new at trying to pick every game against the spread. What do you want?" />
Last week, I didn’t do my football picks. The week before that I was 5 – 11. Hey, I’m new at trying to pick every game against the spread. What do you want? Seriously, you got beef? You starting something?
Good.
So, the picks are back. And I just want to say in response to an email I received asking where I get the spreads for my picks: I use America’s Line from the morning of the day I post. So now you know, Steven from New Jersey. You wasted everyone’s intro. I hope you're happy.
Onto the picks.
DOLPHINS (-5) over Bills
Wow, this is a tough one huh? You’ve got two unproven, inconsistent quarterbacks, two defenses that don’t regularly show up, two 4 – 7 teams and two reasons to change the channel. I’m picking Miami solely because they’re not on the road. Also, it’s harder to breathe in the heat than the cold, so I predict the Bills’ll be sucking wind porn queen style by the fourth quarter. And by the way, I would never put money on this. Not for nothing.
Bengals (+3) over STEELERS
Here’s the way I see this. Big Ben has noble intentions but he can’t save the season if he’s not one hundred percent. And when he ain’t one hundred percent, that means we see Tommy Maddox. And when we see Tommy Maddox, we see a lot of completions to the other team. Also, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Bill Cowher is an idiot. His teams win in spite of him.
(Side note: My buddy Kevin just called me last night and reminded of the fact that he nicknamed our old home town, St. Louis, Cincinnati With an Arch. I was looking at a picture of Cincy the other day and he’s right. It’s like the same guy designed both towns but could only afford one arch. Anyway, I’m babbling.)
Texans (+8.5) over RAVENS
Here’s my thinking. Both these teams really suck. They have crappy coaches, crappy quarterbacks and a lack of interest in finishing the season with any semblance of grace and dignity. Now, I know the Texans will lose, and I know that when they lose, they usually lose big, but I mean, does this spread seem too high or am I crazy?
Don’t answer that. Also, don’t bet on this.
COLTS (-14.5) over Titans
I love the idea of certain members of the ‘72 Dolphins looking over the Colts’ schedule and muttering things like, “Maybe San Diego’ll give ‘em a run for their money.” Someone has to beat these guys eventually. But it won’t be the Titans.
Jaguars (-3) over BROWNS
I think the Jags are a legitimate team this year. I’ve been saying it and saying it and saying it. Now, I know Byron Leftwich is out, but legitimate teams can come through without their quarterback. This is the definitive Jacksonville game. They win this, they’re for real. They lose it, and well, let’s just say they’ll need to host an orgy on a boat before they’ll become the opening story on Sports Center again.
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
“And the Giants are up by four points. There’s two minutes on the clock. Can Drew Bledsoe march down this field and lead his team to a victory? Bledsoe drops back to pass… oh and it’s intercepted. What a break for the Giants.”
Could you see it any other way?
Packers (+7) over BEARS
Ever feel like you’re betting against history? Brett Favre hasn’t lost in Soldier Field since he played a pee wee game there when he was nine. And even then he got hosed because they didn’t have instant replay at the time. And now the odds-masters are giving him seven points there? To quote Vincent from Color of Money, “For some players, luck itself is an art.” And Favre used to be one of those players. Especially in Soldier. Oh yeah, and if Favre can’t even cover on this one, not only am I betting against him the rest of the year, but I’ll also be making and selling, “Free Aaron Rodgers” T shirts.
(Also, and I hate to admit this, but I have a feeling that the Bears could do too good of a job here, accidentally knock Brett Favre out of the game and then lose to Aaron Rodgers. When I get feelings like this, well, I always want to keep them too myself. I mean, that’s a pretty specific gut feeling ain’t it?)
Vikings (-2.5) over LIONS
I know Brad Johnson. I trust Brad Johnson. Joey Harrington, you are no Brad Johnson.
(My friend Tony summed up Brad Johnson’s play very well in a couple of sentences. Here they are. “In all the games I watched Brad Johnson, not once did I jump out of my chair and yell, ‘damn, that Brad Johnson is one helluva quarterback.’ I also never said, ‘wow that Brad Johnson has to stop making mistakes.’ He’s a standard quarterback. He’s got a brain, an arm, he doesn’t rattle and there ain’t one outstanding thing about him.” I concur.)
PANTHERS (-3) over Falcons
Does Vegas know something I don’t? Shouldn’t this spread be 7? Did something happen to the Panthers defense and no one told me about it? Carolina is at home, right? Just checking.
Bucs (-3.5) over SAINTS
Welcome to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the most picked on city since the Rodney King riots in Los Angeles. How do the Saints even motivate themselves for this game? Even Chris Simms' obligatory interceptions won’t cost the Bucs this one. Shed a tear for the Saints, by the way. Just a miserable franchise, coach, owner and team. To a sports fan, this is as sad as seeing a three-legged dog. I mean, awwww. The poor Saints… How do they walk?
Cardinals (-3) over 49ERS
This game sucks.
Redskins (-3) over RAMS
Hey, you know what I love more than a seventh round draft pick from an Ivy league school getting a start for an NFL team? When the team actually believes he’ll win them the game. You know life is bad in St. Louis when the fans are excited about beating the Texans with a QB from Harvard. It is a great story, though. And why is it that the Rams always get all the great stories? And for the record, Rams fans, Kurt Warner couldn’t have gotten into Harvard and neither could you.
Jets (+10 ) over PATRIOTS
This is one of those picks where I know the dog won’t cover, but still… I mean, you can’t give ten points to a losing team, even if you are the Jets. For the record, change this spread to 7 and I pick the Patriots. You know what that means, right? Run, do not walk, away from this pick.
Broncos (-1) over CHIEFS
Let me ask you some questions. If Jake Plummer got knocked out of this game, how would Bronco fans feel? I just can’t imagine anyone saying, “Oh no, Plummer’s hurt. What will we do?” Could any sportswriter ever type the phrase, “The Broncos are reeling from the loss of Jake Plummer” with a straight face? Does any one player sum up this crazy season better than Jake, no-really-I‘m-good-again-this-year-and-I-mean-it-this-time Plummer?
CHARGERS (-10) over Raiders
When games like this came on TV when I was a kid, my Dad would start looking for projects around the house, causing conversations like this:
Dad: Help me run this wire through the basement.
Me: It’s football Sunday.
Dad: It’s a thirty point game. Get your butt down here and help me fix this leaf blower.
EAGLES (+3) over Seahawks
I believe in the football Gods. And I believe that the football Gods have a negative opinion of the Donovan McNabb versus Terrell Owens versus Everyone feud. And I believe that, having exorcised those demons, this team no longer angers the football gods. It’s almost as if they’ve been blessed.
Or I’m just making another dumb pick.